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A Statistics Canada study released May 27 found that only about 20% of immigrants admitted to Canada between 2010 and 2020 were working in their intended specific occupation by 2021. Those who matched their intended field earned a median of $65,600, compared with $44,000 for those who didn't, a pay gap of roughly 49%.
The study used linked data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database and the 2021 Census, covering more than 568,000 newcomers aged 18 to 54 at the time of admission. "Intended occupation" refers to the job a newcomer listed on their immigration application. "Match" means they were working in that role, or a related one, when the Census was taken.
Job match rates vary by how broadly you define the field
At the specific occupation level, meaning the exact job, only 20% of newcomers matched. At the minor-group level, covering closely related occupations, the rate rose to 27%. At the major group level, covering a broader occupational family, it hit 32%.
Match rates were much higher in some occupations than others. Registered nurses had the highest specific-match rate at 44.8%, followed by software engineers and designers at 36.6%. Computer and information systems professionals were the most likely to stay within their minor group, at 66.5%.
The earnings drop was largest for the most educated
The income gap between matched and unmatched newcomers widened with education level. Among those with a graduate degree, matched workers earned $77,600 versus $49,600 for those who didn't match, a difference of about 57%. For bachelor's degree holders, the gap was roughly 51%. For those with only a high school diploma, it was around 25%.
Immigration stream mattered too. Family Class newcomers who matched their intended major group earned $55,400, compared with $34,500 for those who didn't, a 60.6% gap, the widest of any immigration class. Among Federal Skilled Worker Program newcomers, the gap was 49.6%.
Source country also played a role in outcomes. Newcomers from Iran who matched earned $69,700, nearly double the $36,600 earned by those who didn't, a gap of about 90%. For newcomers from China and Pakistan, the gap was about 74%. Filipino newcomers had the smallest gap at about 18%, because even those who landed their intended jobs earned relatively little. A large share of their intended occupations sat in lower-skilled categories like home child care and food service, so there was less ground to lose by moving.
Canadian work experience was the strongest predictor of occupational match
Of all the factors examined, having Canadian work experience before permanent residence had the largest effect on occupational match. Newcomers with prior Canadian work experience had match rates 10 percentage points higher at the specific occupation level and 12 points higher at the major group level.
Prior Canadian work experience was also linked to a lower risk of downward mobility. Newcomers without prior Canadian work experience were about 24 percentage points more likely to end up in a lower-skilled role.
Canadian Experience Class newcomers had the highest match rates among economic immigration categories, at 26.8% for specific occupations and 41.8% at the major group level. But after accounting for Canadian work experience, the gap between CEC and Federal Skilled Worker Program newcomers narrowed. The key factor was the work experience.
This aligns with broader trends. A February 2024 Statistics Canada study found that 36% of all new immigrants in 2022 had work permits in Canada before immigrating, up from 19% in 2010.
Who faces the highest risk of mismatch
Among newcomers who didn't end up in their intended occupation, 42% moved to a lower-skilled job within the same specific classification, and 49% moved to a lower-skilled job at the major group level.
The study found that older newcomers (aged 35 to 54 at admission), women with children at home, and those arriving with only French or no official language knowledge were all more likely to experience downward mobility. Newcomers from the United States had the highest specific-match rate at 37%, while those from the Philippines, China, and Pakistan ranged from 17% to 18%.
What this means for you
If you're planning a move to Canada, Canadian work experience before permanent residence was the single strongest predictor of predictor of landing in your intended field, and it cut the risk of downward mobility by 24 percentage points.
If you have an opportunity to work in Canada on a temporary permit before applying for PR, the numbers say it improves your chances of getting a job in your field. So, get Canadian work experience before you apply for permanent residence if possible.
The rest is largely set in stone before you land, that is where you trained and where you're coming from. Knowing that ahead of time is worth more than any job-search trick once you're here. Plan for the possibility that your first role won't be the one you came for, and treat it as a starting point rather than a judgement on your skillset or experience.
