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TL;DR
According to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, exports to other provinces support about 330,000 jobs in Alberta.
The Chamber also says that trade connected to Alberta supports another 800,000 jobs in the rest of Canada.
Elections Alberta explains that the separation question on October 19 is non-binding and is about a possible future vote.
The 330,000 jobs are supported by current trade. This number does not predict job losses if separation occurs.
On September 24, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce said that Alberta’s exports to other provinces support about 330,000 jobs, or 13% of the province’s workforce.
This estimate came out just before Alberta’s October 19 referendum. Voters will choose whether Alberta should stay a province of Canada or if the government should begin steps toward a future binding vote on separation. The October result will not be binding.
Economist Trevor Tombe led the Chamber’s study and the estimate includes jobs supported both directly and indirectly by sales to other provinces.
Alberta’s trade connections reach far beyond the province
The Chamber estimates that these exports will bring in about $78 billion in income for Alberta in 2025, which is about 16 percent of the province’s total income. Sectors like manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation, and agriculture are all connected to these sales.
The Chamber estimates that trade linked to Alberta supports about 800,000 jobs in other parts of Canada, including 230,000 in Ontario and 125,000 in British Columbia. The income from this trade across Canada is about $151 billion.
According to Statistics Canada, interprovincial trade in goods and services reached $527 billion across Canada in 2024, making up 17 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. Their estimate of 1.6 million jobs only counts direct links to internal trade. The Chamber’s Alberta estimate also includes indirect jobs, so the numbers are based on different methods.
The referendum could have unwanted effects on current jobs and trade costs
Calgary Chamber president and chief executive Deborah Yedlin told the Edmonton Journal she questioned how provinces could reduce existing trade barriers if Alberta became a separate country. Keith Wilson, a lawyer and separation advocate, disputed the suggestion that those jobs would disappear. “Those jobs continue exactly like they do the day before,” he said.
The Chamber’s earlier modelling looked at what would happen if interprovincial trade costs went up by eight percent. In that case, they estimated Alberta’s economy could shrink by $16 billion and lose 34,000 jobs. These losses depend on rising trade costs; the 330,000 figure is for jobs supported by current exports. The full September study was not yet released as of September 25.
What this means for you
If you are considering a job offer in Alberta, ask how much of the employer’s business depends on customers from other provinces. A province-wide estimate cannot show the risk for a single workplace.
The non-binding result on October 19 will not change your work or study status in Canada. The ballot also has five immigration-related questions, which are separate from the Chamber’s trade study. If these questions might affect your plans, read their official wording before voting. Any binding vote on separation would need more legal steps.
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Dozie Anyaegbunam | Managing Editor