Please send this to ONE Canadian immigrant today and ask them to subscribe here.

TL;DR

A report for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, prepared by economist Trevor Tombe, estimates Alberta’s economy could shrink by $41 billion to $62 billion if the province leaves Canada.

The report also predicts a fiscal gap of about $9 billion. On October 19, Albertans will vote on whether to begin the steps needed for a future binding separation referendum.

The Chamber’s trade model assumes that separation would raise trade costs with other provinces and foreign markets by eight percent, similar to what happened after Brexit. If this occurs, economic output per person could drop by six percent and about 175,000 jobs might be lost. The yearly economic impact could reach $62 billion.

The analysis also shows that exports to other provinces support about 334,000 jobs, and international exports support over 450,000 jobs. These figures reflect jobs linked to trade, while the estimate of 175,000 fewer jobs is a separate prediction.

Keith Wilson, a lawyer and separation advocate with Let Alberta Decide, told CBC, “Alberta independence is about Alberta moving closer to its largest market, and the largest market in the world, the United States.” Tombe said the eight percent trade-cost assumption could be too low or too high, and he described Alberta’s possible exit as even more complicated than Brexit.

The report connects the possible shortfall to lower revenues and higher spending. To address this, the analysis suggests a sales tax of about eight percentage points added to the current five percent federal goods and services tax. Another option would reduce the federal payments that Alberta individuals and businesses now receive by about 40 percent.

Elections Alberta says the October 19 separation question is non-binding. Voters will decide whether the provincial government should take steps toward holding a binding referendum in the future. A Research Co. poll from August, which surveyed 750 likely Alberta voters, found that 74 percent would vote to stay in Canada, while 22 percent supported starting the separation process.

A separate overview by the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, funded by the Alberta government, looked at different possible outcomes. In its smooth-separation scenario, economic output would be 2.2 percent below its baseline within five years, but more than 20 years later, it could be 3.4 percent above the baseline. The more positive long-term case assumes a stronger energy sector. The school says it kept editorial control.

If you are weighing a job offer in Alberta, the Chamber’s sector breakdown includes manufacturing and transportation among industries with jobs supported by sales to other provinces. You can ask a prospective employer how much business it does outside Alberta. The province-wide job figures cannot tell you whether a particular position would be affected.

If you hold a work or study permit, the separation question does not change your permit conditions on Oct. 19.