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TL;DR

On September 3, the Alberta Transition Council released a detailed independence plan. It suggests keeping essential services running while Alberta works out new agreements with Canada, First Nations, and other governments.

The 214-page plan, called A Practical Analysis of Alberta’s Transition from Province to Independent Country, has 28 chapters. It discusses topics like currency, banking, pensions, mortgages, policing, defense, borders, and international recognition.

The plan was released ahead of Alberta’s October 19 referendum. Voters will decide whether the province should stay in Canada or begin the legal process for a second, binding separation vote. The October vote alone would not make Alberta independent.

The council believes Alberta could form a new country using its existing institutions. Provincial departments, courts, municipalities, hospitals, schools, police, and tax systems would keep running as responsibilities shift.

Keith Wilson, a lawyer who leads the Alberta Transition Council and Let Alberta Decide, compared the process to a business takeover. “We can plan for the transition of them, just as ordinary businesses do when one business acquires another. The customer is not disrupted,” he said.

The plan admits Alberta cannot guarantee certain results. Issues like federal debt, cross-border travel, pipeline access, First Nations treaties, and recognition by other countries would all need to be negotiated.

The council suggests Alberta would use the Canadian dollar from day one of independence to avoid disrupting prices and contracts. Other options could include the U.S. dollar, using two currencies, or creating a new Alberta currency.

Using the Canadian dollar would not give Alberta control over monetary policy or access to Canada’s financial protections. According to University of Waterloo finance professor James Thompson, Alberta would need new laws to let Canadian banks operate there and keep current mortgage contracts, as he told CBC News.

New mortgages would need an insurer to replace or maintain access to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Wilson said Alberta could set up its own housing mortgage corporation if federal guarantees are not available.

The council plans to keep pension and social program payments going during the transition. How pension assets and future benefits are divided would be decided later. Another council report on wider financial costs will come after this transition plan.

The plan does not say how much federal debt Alberta would take on. It argues that dividing debt by population would ignore what Albertans have already contributed financially.

A separate analysis by the Canada West Foundation estimated that separation could raise public debt to between $80,000 and $95,000 per Albertan, compared to about $27,000 in 2024. It also estimated startup costs at over $200 billion and yearly operating costs at over $50 billion.

Premier Danielle Smith has mentioned a possible $400-billion cost, while separatist leaders have estimated startup costs as low as $5.7 billion. The Alberta government has asked the University of Calgary to do an economic analysis and advisory process, which could cost up to $1.5 million.

Gary Mar, president of the Canada West Foundation, said the transition council’s assumptions show its support for independence. Errol Mendes, a professor of constitutional and international law, said negotiations could take years and might never reach an agreement.

The plan recognizes First Nations as treaty partners with rights protected by the Constitutionion. It says reserve land would not automatically change status after independence and lists four possible arrangements, including keeping ties with Canada where possible.

The provincial government or transition council could not decide these arrangements on their own. Negotiations would need to cover treaty obligations, reserve lands, public funding, governance, and services currently provided by Ottawa.

Any move toward separation would have to follow the federal Clarity Act, which was created after the Supreme Court of Canada’s Quebec Secession Reference. This law requires a clear referendum question and a clear majority before the federal government will start negotiations.

Earlier this year, public support for separation was low. An Ipsos poll from May 28 to June 1 found that 18 percent would vote for independence, while 72 percent would stay in Canada. The poll surveyed 600 Alberta residents and had a 4.9 percentage point credibility interval.

The transition plan and October referendum will not immediately change your immigration status, citizenship, pensions, mortgages, or access to public services. The first vote is only about whether Alberta should begin a legal process that could lead to another referendum.

Newcomers, international students, and temporary workers should keep using current federal and provincial programs.

If the process moves forward, follow official updates from both governments about work permits, permanent residence, travel documents, and benefits. Any changes would depend on a binding separation vote, negotiations, and new laws—not just the transition council’s proposals.