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TL;DR
Quebec's population fell by 9,600 people in 2025 to 9.03 million, the first annual decline since the 1950s.
The number of non-permanent residents in the province dropped by 51,400 as federal and provincial governments pulled back on temporary immigration.
Deaths reached 80,450 and births 78,200, the second consecutive year deaths outnumbered births, with a fertility rate of 1.36.
International migration produced a net gain of just 450 people, almost erasing the source of Quebec's growth from 2022 to 2024.
Permanent immigration held steady at 60,150 admissions, and 59% of those new permanent residents had previously held temporary status.
For the first time since the 1950s, Quebec finished a year with fewer people in it than it started with. The province lost 9,600 residents in 2025 and now sits at 9.03 million, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec's (ISQ) demographic report released May 13.
The decline, amounting to minus 0.1%, came after annual population gains of 127,000 and 166,000 people between 2022 and 2024, almost all of it from international migration. The reduction comes as Ottawa and Quebec City restricted temporary immigration and underlying trends, such as an aging population, remain unchanged.
The drop in temporary residents did most of the work
The single largest factor was a 51,400 drop in non-permanent residents, a category that includes temporary foreign workers, international students, and asylum seekers. Quebec had an estimated 514,050 non-permanent residents on January 1, 2026, down from 565,450 a year earlier.
The drop is driven by two factors. The federal government's 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan targets reducing the temporary resident population to less than 5% of Canada's total by the end of 2027, with temporary resident arrivals capped at 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in both 2027 and 2028.
Quebec's own 2026–2029 plan, tabled by Immigration Minister Jean-François Roberge on November 6, 2025, sets a ceiling of 65,000 permits under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program and 110,000 under the International Student Program by 2029.
Permanent immigration also didn’t move much. Quebec admitted 60,150 new permanent residents in 2025, slightly above the 59,400 it took in the year before.
Birth rates rose but deaths rose more
Quebec recorded 78,200 births in 2025, up 800 from the previous year, and 80,450 deaths, up 1,650. Deaths have now outnumbered births for two consecutive years, and the ISQ said two flu waves in February and December pushed mortality 4% above the pre-pandemic trend.
The fertility rate ticked up slightly to 1.36 children per woman from 2024's historic low of 1.35, still well below the 2.1 needed to replace the population. Quebec women are having their first child at an average age of 30.2 years, and the fertility rate has been on a downward path for roughly fifteen years.
What these numbers describe is a province that has lost the demographic margin it used to have. International migration once covered the gap between births and deaths and then some.
Quebec is losing residents to other provinces too
The interprovincial migration balance was minus 7,600 in 2025, more than double the deficit Quebec posted in 2024. Ontario took 4,900 of those people and Alberta took 1,400. The only province where Quebec posted a net gain was New Brunswick, at 900.
Add international and interprovincial migration together and the total migration balance was minus 7,150.
The temporary-to-permanent pathway isn’t exactly any different
Of the 60,150 people who became permanent residents of Quebec in 2025, 59% had previously held temporary status as workers, students, or asylum claimants. That share has roughly tripled since the early 2010s, when it sat around 20%.
If the temporary pool keeps shrinking at the current pace, the supply of candidates already in Quebec who can transition to permanent residence will shrink with it.
Ottawa’s In-Canada Workers Initiative will accelerate up to 33,000 work-permit holders into permanent residence in 2026 and 2027, but the initiative excludes all 41 Census Metropolitan Areas, including Montreal, Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, and Gatineau. For most of Quebec's temporary workforce, who live in those urban regions, the program does not apply.
Quebec also carries a disproportionate share of Canada's asylum claimants. The province was home to 37% of asylum seekers present in the country in 2025 but only 14% of temporary workers and 14% of international students, a mix that means any federal asylum policy decisions might hit Quebec harder than any other province.
What this means for you
If you hold temporary status in Quebec or are planning to apply, the policy direction in both Ottawa and Quebec City is toward fewer admissions, not more, through at least 2029.
Temporary foreign workers and international students should expect tighter caps on new permits and renewals. Quebec's 2029 ceilings of 65,000 and 110,000 are below current levels, and new French-language requirements apply at renewal for some categories.
Permanent residence pathways remain open. 59% of new permanent residents in 2025 transitioned from temporary status, so existing programs still work. But Ottawa's In-Canada Workers Initiative, which fast-tracks 33,000 workers into PR in 2026 and 2027, means only workers in smaller Quebec communities who applied through a federal pilot may see faster processing.
Asylum claimants make up a disproportionate share of Quebec's non-permanent residents. Any federal change to asylum processing or eligibility will affect Quebec more than other provinces, both in volume and in service load.
Watch for Quebec's mid-cycle adjustments to the 2026–2029 plan and the federal government's progress against its 5% temporary resident target. Both will determine how many people the system lets in and how quickly transitions to permanent residence happen.
