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TL;DR

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has reduced its estimated wait for the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) to six months, while the base Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) estimates have increased.

The Aug. 10 processing-time update cut the FSWP estimate from seven months to six. That puts the program back within IRCC’s six-month service standard and level with the Canadian Experience Class (CEC). These changes mean some good news for applicants planning around employment, expiring permits, family moves, and settlement costs.

The base PNP estimate rose from 12 months in July to 13 months in August. Its inventory still declined by 1,400 applications, from 103,800 to 102,400.

Base applications are submitted outside Express Entry after a province or territory issues a nomination. The new federal estimate is two months longer than IRCC’s 11-month service standard for these applications. That standard excludes the time required for the province or territory to process the nomination.

Enhanced PNP applications submitted through Express Entry remained at seven months. Their inventory declined by 300 applications to 11,800. The estimate remains one month above the six-month Express Entry standard.

IRCC’s estimates depend on more than the size of the existing queue. The department’s briefing on processing times says inventories can accumulate when the number of applications exceeds the admissions available under the annual Immigration Levels Plan. Projected processing capacity and expected intake also affect forward-looking estimates.

Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan set a target of 380,000 permanent resident admissions in 2026. Economic immigration accounts for 63% of planned admissions this year and 64% in both 2027 and 2028.

The FSWP inventory decreased by 3,400 applications to 52,400 between the July and August updates. Its estimated wait fell by one month during the same period. The CEC estimate held at six months after dropping from seven months in July. Its inventory declined by 1,800 applications to 59,700.

Longer waits remain elsewhere in economic immigration. The Atlantic Immigration Program stayed at 26 months, more than twice its 11-month service standard, even as its inventory declined by 200 applications to 12,100.

The Quebec Skilled Worker Selection Program remained at 11 months, with its inventory falling by 1,000 to 21,200. Quebec’s Business Class stayed at 75 months, or more than six years, with 3,700 applications awaiting assessment.

The longest estimates apply to the Start-up Visa and Federal Self-Employed Persons Program. Both continue to show waits of more than 10 years. The Start-up Visa inventory increased by 100 applications to 47,600, while the self-employed inventory remained at 8,000.

The Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP) estimate outside Quebec fell from 30 months to 29 months while its inventory declined by 1,400 applications to 39,000.

Applicants who intend to live in Quebec face a much longer wait because family sponsorship there involves both federal and provincial processing. The PGP estimate for Quebec declined from 65 months to 64 months, while the inventory fell by 100 applications to 10,400.

Spousal and common-law sponsorship estimates didn’t change. Outside Quebec, the estimate remained 27 months for applicants living in Canada and 17 months for those living abroad. The inventory for partners living outside Canada increased by 3,900 applications to 58,000.

Within Quebec, inland sponsorship remained at 32 months and outland sponsorship stayed at 33 months. Their inventories increased by 300 and 400 applications, respectively.

IRCC’s processing-time tool uses current inventory, available staff, expected intake, and planned admissions to estimate how long a new application could take. These figures are projections, not guaranteed deadlines or maximum waits.

Processing begins when IRCC receives a complete application and ends when it makes a decision. The estimate includes time for biometrics. Missing documents, background screening, an interview, or an expired medical examination can extend an individual case.

Service standards serve a different purpose. IRCC generally aims to complete 80% of eligible, complete applications within the period listed in its official standards. A monthly estimate can sit above or below that target as inventories and admissions capacity change.

Use the estimate for your exact immigration stream rather than the broader program name. Base and enhanced PNP files now differ by six months, while Quebec family applications have separate timelines from applications destined for other provinces.