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TL;DR
IRCC is cutting new temporary resident arrivals from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, a 43% reduction, while absorbing $154.9 million in budget cuts.
The department is proposing to retire the Federal Skilled Worker, Canadian Experience, and Federal Skilled Trades classes and replace them with a single new Express Entry stream.
Processing times remain long in key streams: 21 months for spousal sponsorship outside Quebec, 33 months for the Atlantic Immigration Program, and more than 10 years for Start-Up Visa applications.
New asylum rules under Bill C-12 could render an estimated 30,000 claimants ineligible, according to CBC News.
Ottawa — Canada's federal immigration department is cutting temporary resident admissions by 43%, proposing to collapse its three main Express Entry programs into one, and absorbing nearly $155 million in budget reductions in 2026-27, according to IRCC's departmental plan and supplementary levels plan released under Prime Minister Mark Carney's government.
The changes are arriving simultaneously. The system is becoming smaller, slower to process applications, and different, reducing predictability for applicants, employers, and schools.
Temporary resident cuts and the student squeeze
Under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, new temporary resident arrivals drop from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, then to 370,000 in both 2027 and 2028. IRCC says the goal is to bring the temporary population below 5% of Canada's total population by the end of 2027. Permanent resident admissions will hold at 380,000 per year through 2028, with economic immigration rising to 64% of the intake by 2027.
International students face the steepest reductions. Study permit allocations have been cut roughly in half, and student policy is now tied to overall temporary resident cap management. An RBC-Eurasia Group risks report warns that this correction, while responding to a real surge in temporary migration, risks damaging Canada's brand as a stable destination for skilled newcomers. The report says policy volatility has created confusion and made the system less transparent.
An Express Entry redesign looks underway
The biggest change still in motion is the proposed overhaul of Express Entry. CIC News reported that IRCC's Forward Regulatory Plan proposes repealing the Federal Skilled Worker Class, the Canadian Experience Class, and the Federal Skilled Trades Class, replacing all three with a single new class which supposedly simplifies eligibility.
IRCC has not published full details. The stated intent is to simplify the system for applicants, employers, and institutional partners. But those three programs are the core federal economic pathways that hundreds of thousands of skilled workers have built their immigration plans around. A redesign mid-cycle affects those currently in the application pipeline.
Processing backlogs persist
Current IRCC processing times show spousal sponsorship outside Quebec at 21 months, the Atlantic Immigration Program at 33 months, and Start-Up Visa applications at more than 10 years. These delays affect the timing of programs designed to fill labour gaps and reunite families.
The department is also losing capacity. IRCC's plan confirms $154,982,029 in spending reductions in 2026-27, rising to $284,642,630 by 2028-29, with a loss of approximately 318 full-time equivalents. The cuts come through measures like transferring employer compliance inspections to Employment and Social Development Canada, reducing external consultants, and adjusting settlement programs.
Asylum changes under Bill C-12
CBC News reported that an estimated 30,000 asylum claimants may become ineligible under Bill C-12, which allows the government to bar claims from people who have been in Canada for more than a year or who filed more than 14 days after an irregular border crossing. Former immigration minister Marc Miller described the in-Canada asylum system as strained by resource constraints.
Public opinion and the demographic tension
A Leger poll from March 2026 found 65% of Canadians support giving provinces significantly more control over immigration levels and selection criteria. The same poll found 72% support charging temporary residents fees for public health care and education.
But the RBC-Eurasia Group report warns Canada is approaching a "demographic cliff" driven by aging and low fertility. The report argues that while cuts may satisfy public pressure in the short run, an overly restrictive system could hurt labour supply, economic growth, and investment.
IRCC's own plans reflect these concerns The department says it will continue prioritizing critical labour gaps, support for rural communities, and Francophone immigration targets of 10.5% of admissions outside Quebec by 2028.
What this means for you
If you're planning around Canadian immigration right now, note that fewer spots, longer waits, and possible program redesigns are happening at the same time. A strategy that worked in 2024 may not apply in 2026.
If you're an Express Entry candidate, watch closely for changes to program structure. The FSW, CEC, and FST classes may be replaced, and eligibility criteria could shift.
If you're waiting on family sponsorship, plan for timelines well beyond service standards, especially outside Quebec.
If you hold temporary status, expect tighter caps on renewals and transitions. The government is prioritizing people with skills already matched to labour gaps.
If you're an employer or school, build more buffer into hiring and enrolment timelines. Processing delays and policy changes can shift plans with little notice.
